List of issues > Series «Political Science and Religion Studies». 2023. Vol 45
Neighbourhood Effect as a Significant Factor
at the Latvian Parliamentary Elections in 2010-2022
Author(s)
Abstract
The article tackles the issue of the neighbourhood effect in the Latvian Saeima elections in
2010–2022. Although the ethnolinguistic cleavage remains the main voting factor, currently the Latvian electoral system is transforming due to the fragmentation of the Russian-speaking electoral
landscape. As a result, it is increasingly important to take into account other voting factors including
the neighbourhood effect. To prove its importance in the electoral system the regression analysis is
used: the classical model is compared with the spatial lag model when the average support of the
party in neighbouring regions is added to the list of independent variables. In all the cases with an
acceptable probability value accounting for the spatial lag has increased the explanatory power and
the quality of the regression models. The strongest neighbourhood effect has been identified for the
Progressive party in 2022, the Development/For! In 2018 and the Greens and Farmers Union in
2011. The neighbourhood effect has also influenced the voting for the so-called Russian parties including the Harmony, the Larvian Russian Union and the Stability, however it has not explained
more than a few percent of the dispersion of their support, with the etholinguistic structure of electorate being of paramount importance in these cases.
About the Authors
Zhirnova Lidia Sergeyevna,
Research Fellow, Center for Spatial
Analysis in International Relations,
Institute for International Studies
Moscow State Institute of International
Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia
(MGIMO University),
76, Vernadskiy avе., Moscow, 119454, Russian
Federation,
e-mail: l.zhirnova@inno.mgimo.ru
For citation
Zhirnova L.S. Neighbourhood Effect as a Significant Factor at the Latvian Parliamentary Elections in 2010–2022.
The Bulletin of Irkutsk State University. Series Political Science and Religion Studies, 2023, vol. 45, pp. 90-100.
https://doi.org/10.26516/2073-3380.2023.45.90 (in Russian)
Keywords
electoral geography, neighbourhood effect, spatial autoregression, spatial lag, parliamentary elections, Saeima, Latvia.
UDC
911.3:32
DOI
https://doi.org/10.26516/2073-3380.2023.45.90
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